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Brazil's presidential election is heading to a second round after right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of incumbent left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Sunday's first-round vote, but fell short of the outright majority needed to claim victory.
With 98.81% of ballots counted, Bolsonaro had secured 47.24% of the vote, compared with 44.91% for Lula. Because no candidate crossed the 50% threshold, the two will face each other in a run-off on 25 October that will decide who leads Latin America's largest country and economy.
The result represents a striking turnaround from the campaign trail, where Lula had consistently polled slightly ahead. Bolsonaro's stronger-than-expected showing has upended assumptions about the race and left many analysts reassessing his prospects in the second round.
Bolsonaro, 45, is the eldest son of former right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for masterminding a failed coup attempt following his defeat in the previous election. Barred from seeking re-election even before his conviction, the elder Bolsonaro endorsed his son to carry the family's political banner instead.
The first round has been widely characterised as a polarising contest between Brazil's two dominant political forces, with sovereignty, public security, the economy and corruption emerging as the issues voters cared about most. The campaign has once again divided the country along familiar left-right lines.
Speaking after casting his ballot, the 80-year-old Lula framed the choice facing Brazilians in stark terms, warning that the election amounted to a decision between democracy and what he described as "barbarism." Bolsonaro, meanwhile, said his goal was to "free the Brazilian people," striking a populist tone aimed at voters frustrated with the status quo.
Lula is seeking a fourth term in office, having previously won the presidency in 2002 and 2006, and then returning for a non-consecutive term in 2022. On that occasion, he defeated Jair Bolsonaro by less than two percentage points — the narrowest presidential result in Brazil's history. In the aftermath, Bolsonaro's supporters stormed and vandalised government buildings on 8 January 2023.
The current president draws his strongest support from Brazil's poorer northeast, as well as among low-income voters, Catholics and women. Flávio Bolsonaro's base, by contrast, lies in the wealthier south and among evangelical Christians, a powerful voting bloc in Brazilian politics.
The run-off now appears to be Bolsonaro's to lose. Several of the other presidential candidates eliminated in the first round were right-wing alternatives, and their supporters are widely expected to gravitate towards him in the second round — a dynamic that could prove decisive on 25 October.
The outcome carries significance well beyond Brazil's borders. Much of Latin America has now elected right-wing presidents aligned with the Trump administration, and the run-off will determine whether Brazil — the region's biggest country and economy — follows that trend or charts a different course.
Relations with Washington have been a recurring theme of the campaign. Lula made "sovereignty" a central pillar of his bid, at times accusing the United States of attempting to interfere in and influence Brazil's elections, and he has pledged to increase defence spending. On Sunday, the president of Brazil's supreme electoral court said no evidence of international interference had been found.
Earlier this year, Flávio Bolsonaro successfully lobbied the United States to designate Brazil's two largest gangs as terrorist organisations. In July, Brazil refused visas for two US State Department officials whom it accused of trying to sow doubt in the country's electoral system — a claim Washington dismissed as "baseless." The dispute followed reports that Bolsonaro had told a group of foreign diplomats that Brazil's voting machines share the same origin as Venezuela's, an assertion that is false.
Last year, Donald Trump cited the coup trial of Jair Bolsonaro as justification for imposing tariffs on Brazil and sanctioning several senior officials and judges. A victory for Flávio Bolsonaro would likely see Brazil join the US-led "Shield of Americas" coalition against narco-trafficking and move into closer alignment with Washington. He has nonetheless pledged to maintain an "economically pragmatic" relationship with China, which has overtaken the US as Brazil's largest trading partner and remains a crucial customer for Brazilian soy and beef exports.
Corruption also loomed large over the campaign, following a scandal involving jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro, who orchestrated one of Brazil's largest financial frauds and became entangled with senior figures across the political spectrum. Flávio Bolsonaro acknowledged that he had asked Vorcaro to bankroll a biopic about his father, after voice recordings emerged in which he could be heard requesting 134 million reais — roughly $25.9m, or £19.5m.
Lula was also indirectly affected by the fallout, after police suggested that Vorcaro had approached Supreme Court judge Alexandre de Moraes to seek help in avoiding arrest. Moraes denies any wrongdoing, and the episode has added to the charged atmosphere surrounding the race.
The second round now sets up a direct confrontation between two of the biggest names in Brazilian politics and will test whether the country's electorate, deeply divided for years, is prepared to hand power back to the Bolsonaro family — or grant Lula another term in office.
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