lukman-hakim
When Vladimir Putin addressed Russia's parliament on Wednesday, he could count on a friendly reception. The legislative election held last month—described by one Russian newspaper as a "Special Election Operation"—has produced a State Duma that is more loyal to the president than any previous incarnation. The ruling United Russia party now holds a larger number of seats than ever before, a result that the Kremlin is expected to present as proof of overwhelming public backing.
The question that hangs over Moscow is what Putin intends to do with that mandate. There is little indication that he is preparing to wind down what the Kremlin still calls a special military operation. Instead, the available evidence points toward a continued full-scale invasion of Ukraine, even as Russian forces absorb heavy battlefield losses and the national economy comes under growing strain.
Putin's public remarks have consistently conveyed confidence that Russia can achieve a military victory. That optimism is apparently reinforced by intelligence circulating in Russian media about Ukraine's shortage of air-defence missiles. Moscow is also said to be counting on a winter campaign of strikes to intensify pressure on the Ukrainian population. Kyiv has acknowledged difficulties in intercepting Russia's ballistic missiles and a new class of jet-powered drones that have been launched against Ukrainian targets on a daily basis.
Beyond the front lines, the Kremlin has made no attempt to hide its desire to see European governments cut their military and financial support for Ukraine. Russian officials argue that such assistance only prolongs the fighting and obstructs a Russian victory. Western officials, however, believe Moscow has been transmitting less subtle signals to that end, accusing Russia of waging an escalating hybrid campaign against European countries.
Those accusations include cyber-attacks, acts of sabotage and Russian drones penetrating European airspace. In one incident cited by Western officials, a drone carrying an explosive device was discovered near Ukrainian cargo aircraft at Leipzig airport in Germany. Such operations are described as taking place in the "grey zone"—the ambiguous space between peace and open war.
In an interview this week, Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, was asked directly whether his country is waging a hybrid war against European states. He rejected the premise, framing the matter instead as Russia destroying drones and missiles supplied to Ukraine by Britain and continental Europe that are then used to attack Russian forces. "If you admit your weapons are being used to strike us and we destroy them, call it whatever you want," Lavrov said. "But I have no doubt this is a war Europe is waging against us. We've been saying so for a long time."
That position has been official Russian policy for some time: the claim that events in Ukraine amount to a European war against Russia. The narrative omits a central fact—that in 2022 it was the Kremlin that ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and that Russia continues to prosecute that war on Ukrainian territory.
The more consequential question is how far Moscow might go to sever European support for Kyiv. Western analysts have considered whether Russia could be preparing to initiate a direct military conflict with a NATO member state. Most assessments suggest that is unlikely. After more than four and a half years of war, Russia's army has still not managed to occupy the entirety of Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, which lies immediately adjacent to Russia itself. That battlefield reality makes a broader confrontation with NATO appear implausible as a deliberate strategy.
What may be the actual intention, according to Western officials, is to frighten Europe into reducing its backing for Ukraine. That interpretation is supported by the messaging emerging from prominent Russian foreign-policy figures. Sergei Karaganov, honorary chairman of Russia's Council for Foreign and Defence Policy, has publicly warned that continued European involvement could push Moscow toward escalation.
In an interview, Karaganov outlined a scenario in which Russia would first use conventional weapons against Europe. If Europe did not back down, he suggested, Russia would then resort to nuclear strikes. "There will be little left of some European countries," he said. When it was put to him that a nuclear strike would provoke a response from Europe and leave nothing of Russia, Karaganov dismissed the possibility. He argued that neither Britain nor the United States would be willing to retaliate with nuclear weapons on Russia's behalf, describing such a response as unthinkable.
Karaganov's remarks are not an official statement of government policy, but they reflect a strand of thinking that has gained prominence in Moscow's security debate. They also underscore the wider concern in Western capitals that Russia's strategy is designed less to win a direct war with NATO than to test the alliance's cohesion and political will.
The immediate focus now turns to Putin's scheduled appearance at the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow on Thursday. That annual foreign-policy forum has traditionally offered a window into the Russian president's worldview, and his speeches there have often been used to signal shifts in strategic direction. Observers will be watching for any indication of whether he intends to escalate further in Ukraine, adjust his posture toward Europe, or offer any opening for negotiations. Based on the current evidence, the expectation is that he will continue on the same course.
Comments (0)