lukman-hakim
Rebel authorities in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region announced on Sunday that their forces had temporarily vacated Mekelle, the regional capital, as advancing federal troops and their allies closed in on the city. The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which has governed the region for years, described the relocation as a precautionary measure taken to shield civilians from the dangers of urban warfare.
Two residents reached by the BBC confirmed that pro-government fighters were now in control of Mekelle and that TPLF units had left the city behind. One of the residents added that mobile phone networks appeared to be working again in some neighbourhoods, a small sign of normalcy returning even as the broader security picture remains volatile.
The withdrawal represents one of the most consequential turns in a conflict that has reignited across northern Ethiopia in recent weeks. Clashes between the TPLF and federal forces, supported by allied militias, have spread through parts of Tigray as well as the neighbouring regions of Afar and Amhara, threatening to undo years of fragile stability.
For observers of the Horn of Africa, the fall of Mekelle to government-aligned forces raises serious questions about where the fighting goes next. Analysts warn that a prolonged contest over the region could destabilise a part of the continent already burdened by overlapping crises, and that neighbouring states may be drawn in, whether through direct involvement or by proxy.
International reaction was swift. The United States Department of State urged all parties to exercise restraint and to pursue dialogue, issuing the appeal shortly before a diplomatic gathering in Egypt on Sunday that brought together leaders from several of Ethiopia's neighbours to discuss the escalating violence.
The latest eruption of hostilities follows a steady deterioration in relations over the past six months, with both the TPLF and the federal government trading accusations that the other has violated the terms of a peace agreement. That deal, brokered by the African Union in 2022 and known as the Pretoria Agreement, ended a two-year civil war that ranks among the deadliest conflicts of this century.
The human cost of that earlier war was staggering. The AU's mediator estimated that roughly 600,000 people lost their lives, while the fighting pushed Tigray to the brink of famine. Residents of the region have spent the years since struggling to rebuild their lives, and the renewed violence threatens to erase much of that painful recovery.
Tensions deepened further last month when the TPLF joined forces with six other armed movements, including the Fano militia based in Amhara, to create a coalition whose declared aim is to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government from power. The alliance has fundamentally reshaped the political and military landscape, turning scattered insurgencies into a more coordinated challenge to Addis Ababa.
Regional diplomacy has deteriorated in parallel. On Friday, Ethiopia and Eritrea severed diplomatic relations after Addis Ababa accused Asmara of backing the new rebel alliance, an allegation Eritrea has denied. The rupture between the two neighbours marks a dramatic reversal from the cooperation that characterized their relationship during the earlier Tigray war.
Ethiopia has also levelled accusations at Egypt, claiming Cairo has supported the rebels. The dispute led to the expulsion of an Egyptian diplomat, and Egypt responded in kind by ordering an Ethiopian embassy official to depart within the same period. The tit-for-tat expulsions add another layer of friction to an already fraught regional environment.
Humanitarian agencies are sounding alarms about the consequences for civilians. The United Nations has warned that the worsening security situation in northern Ethiopia is severely disrupting relief operations, and it has called on all sides to guarantee safe and unhindered access to people in need. Aid groups fear that any sustained fighting around Mekelle could cut off supply routes and leave hundreds of thousands without basic assistance.
The TPLF's decision to leave Mekelle without a major battle may reflect a calculation that defending the city street by street would inflict unacceptable harm on residents, while also preserving its forces for future engagements. Whether the pullback is genuinely temporary, as the group insists, or the beginning of a larger strategic retreat remains unclear.
For Prime Minister Abiy's government, the seizure of Mekelle offers a significant symbolic and military victory, but it also carries risks. Governing a restive region amid an active insurgency and a newly formed rebel coalition could stretch federal resources thin, particularly with tensions simmering along the Eritrean border and diplomatic rows continuing with Egypt.
The coming days are likely to prove decisive. Much will depend on whether federal forces can consolidate their hold on Mekelle, whether the rebel alliance can mount a coordinated response, and whether international pressure can pull the parties back toward the negotiating table. For now, the people of Tigray face another anxious chapter in a conflict that has already cost them far too much.
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